The four major problems of chemical industry are not optimistic in the second half of the year
Release time：2021-7-16 18:5
In the first half of this year, although China's petroleum and chemical industry maintained a good momentum of development in production and marketing, price, import and export, and economic benefits continued to improve, there are still many problems in economic operation, mainly in four aspects
——Tight oil supply
In the first half of the year, China's oil market was in a tight supply situation, especially in the southern region. In the first five months, China's total imports of crude oil reached 61.548 million tons, an increase of 17.7% over the same period of last year. Although the situation was better than that in the first quarter, in view of the strategic position of crude oil in the whole national economy, this situation should be highly concerned. Since the beginning of this year, the country has raised the price of refined oil twice in March and may respectively. Although the adjustment helps to improve energy efficiency and restrain some consumer demand, the overall tight supply situation has not changed significantly.
With the promotion of the construction of new socialist countryside, China's rural production will get greater development, agriculture will become a new major energy consumption group, and the potential rural consumption demand will gradually become a new growth point of oil consumption. In order to solve the problem of oil supply in the second half of the year, we should consider all kinds of influencing factors, formulate energy policies in line with China's economic development, strive to increase oil inventory, reasonably arrange transportation, strengthen market management, adjust export quantity, establish corresponding level market early warning mechanism, and strengthen national macro-control.
——In the first five months of the decline of pesticide export, the pesticide industry showed a good situation of off-season and prosperous production and marketing, but the export situation was not optimistic. From January to may, the total export of pesticides was 185000 tons, up 8.1% year on year; However, the export volume decreased by 21.8% year on year. The first reason is that the production, sale and use of methamidophos and other five highly toxic pesticides will be banned by the end of 2006, and these products account for a high proportion in the total export of pesticides; Second, the trade barriers in Europe, America and Australia are serious; Third, the brand of export products is poor; Fourth, disorderly competition; Fifth, it is affected by the exchange rate. In terms of varieties, the export volume of pesticides and fungicides was 12000 tons and 4000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.7% and 23.9% respectively; The export of herbicides was 20000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 56.1%.
——The price of natural rubber is too high. Natural rubber is the main raw material and strategic material of China's rubber industry. However, China's natural rubber resources are scarce, the contradiction between supply and demand is increasingly prominent, and the price remains high. According to the plan of the Ministry of agriculture, the total output of natural rubber in China will be 750000 tons by 2010, and the self-sufficiency rate of domestic natural rubber will be less than 1 / 3 at that time, which will cause China's natural rubber highly dependent on imports and can only passively accept the import price. Since 2006, the domestic price of natural rubber has continued to rise, rising to the highest level in June this year. The prices of natural rubber SCR5 and scr10 reached 25250 yuan / ton and 24250 yuan / ton respectively. Such "sky high price" is even worse for the rubber products industry, which has oversupply of production capacity, fierce market competition, and frequent anti-dumping of export trade. Downstream users have called for cooling the "high fever" rubber price, so the focus of the market is on the import tariff of natural rubber again. Enterprises have called on the state to reduce the import tariff of natural rubber, or to restore the provisional tax rate of 12% before joining the WTO.
——In recent years, the efficiency of the whole chemical industry has been improved, resulting in a surge of capacity expansion in the whole industry. In particular, there are many new projects in the central and western regions with rich energy and resources. These regions want to speed up economic development during the 10th Five Year Plan period, one after another use local coal, mineral resources and other resources to plan and build large-scale coal chemical bases, The projects are similar. These projects will be put into production successively in the past two years, resulting in overcapacity of many products, such as "two alkali", calcium carbide, pesticide, urea, paint, dye, etc. At present, this trend continues to spread. There is a lack of unity and coordination among regions, and blind construction of capacity regardless of the development of market and environment. Even in the same region, there is a phenomenon of disorderly planning. At the same time, many private investors lack rational low-level repeated construction, which also aggravates the problem of overcapacity. Therefore, promoting structural adjustment, strengthening pollution control and developing circular economy are the top priorities of the whole industry.
In order to promote the adjustment of the industrial structure of the whole petroleum and chemical industry, the state should increase policy support for the development of new chemical materials, fine chemicals and other high value-added products, as well as new technologies and new processes, and resolutely eliminate the enterprises with small scale, backward processes and technologies, and substandard environmental protection.
In addition, there are also some problems that should be paid attention to, such as serious losses in the refining industry, tight supply of phosphate rock for phosphate fertilizer enterprises in Phosphorus Deficient provinces, overcapacity of sulfuric acid, low prices, etc.
In the second half of this year, China's output of petroleum and chemical products will still maintain a rapid growth. However, in view of the fact that downstream demand cannot increase at the same time, it is expected that the product sales will decline compared with 2005; Due to the rising cost of energy, raw materials and transportation, the cost of the whole industry will increase greatly compared with that in 2005. Especially in the situation of supply exceeding demand, the price support is weak. Therefore, the price trend of chemical products is not optimistic.
